The New Gipper?

The election of 2008 was a lot like the election of 1980. And the Obama campaign was a lot like Reagan's.

In 1980, the nation was especially concerned with the results of the perceived incompetence of the incumbent, Jimmy Carter. We were ineptly bogged down in a conflict in the Middle East (the Iranian hostage crisis), the economy was in a tailspin — with high unemployment and double-digit inflation — and the country, in general, seemed to be moving in the wrong direction. The great desire was for change in the directions of peace, prosperity, and enhanced respect for our country in the world. The Democratic base was demoralized, but the Republican base was enthusiastic and energized. And that enthusiasm gap was reflected in the disparity of turnout from members of each party.

Reagan promised to regain America's place as the beacon of hope and freedom and, through cutting taxes and increasing competence, to get the economy moving again. His calm, savvy, and likable performance in one late debate convinced Americans that, despite his reputation, he was no crazy extremist. Reagan displayed, instead, the character and temperament to be a great leader. The rapid movement of voters to Reagan in the last days of the campaign was unprecedented, and he won an electoral vote landslide that few expected. Fear based on Reagan's controversial background in California dissipated in the final days.

Obama's appeal to his party's base came through his early and resolute awareness that the very choice to go to war in Iraq was incompetent. And he received the votes of all sorts of Americans disgusted by the way that war has been waged. But McCain was able to distance himself from the president through his promotion of the surge, and by late August it wasn't clear at all that Bush's failed foreign policy was rubbing off that much on him.

But still, the overwhelming sense was that the country was on the wrong track. So change remained the default position among voters, and Obama, of course, persistently exploited that simple desire with a simple message.

Despite Obama's — or any Democrat's — advantages in what had become a "toxic" political environment for any Republican, the tracking polls suggested in early September that the election would be very close. McCain had one advantage that Carter didn't. He wasn't the incumbent and, as a maverick, experienced some success in separating himself from any kind of normal partisanship. That success, though, had its downside: The Republican base wasn't so enthusiastic about a candidate who didn't care that much about the issues that made them Republican.

The debates themselves might have given the edge to Obama. He exuded calmness and confidence, as well as a sort of intelligent mastery of detail that lessened doubts about his background and inexperience. McCain, meanwhile, seemed somewhat disoriented, if not exactly incompetent. He also seemed just too old to lead. The standard by which Obama was judged was the same as Reagan's: is he a safe alternative? Is he moderate enough and competent enough to lead? The polls, I think, showed McCain doing even worse in the debates than he really did, because most ties went to the change agent.

But it took the Wall Street meltdown inflicting big pain and even bigger anxiety on Main Street for McCain to fall behind for good. The amazing thing, in retrospect, is that his campaign didn't fall apart altogether, and he still managed to receive a respectable percentage of the popular vote.

It's hard to know how the character or the timing of the crisis could have been worse for McCain. McCain, at his best, is the patriotic warrior calling for sacrifice. He doesn't seem authentic at all when it comes to feeling middle-class pain. Nor can he effectively fake caring about the details of economic policy. He didn't know his own health-care reform package well enough to respond to Democratic caricatures of it. And he didn't seem to know the Bush tax cuts well enough to be able to explain why it's unlikely that an all-Democratic government would keep their popular features in place. Even with the help of Joe the Plumber, McCain doesn't really seem to know the case for "supply side" economics. People, of course, don't give a damn about earmarks when they're actually frightened for their futures.